Toulouse 2-2 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 21 Apr 2024

Toulouse
2-2 HT 1-1
Marsilya
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Toulouse vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.75
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.5
X/2
10%
5.61
X/X
9%
4.3
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
19%
3.85
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.37/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.26
+1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.8 Crosses 16.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Toulouse vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Marsilya
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.58 xG 1.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
300 Passes 442
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.02.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
29.12.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 6-1 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
08.02.2020 Marsilya Marsilya 1-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
24.11.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
18.05.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 2-5 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Toulouse 2-2 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-2
AWAY Marsilya
0.51 xG 1.10
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
351 Passes 442
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse and Marsilya couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Toulouse had 45% of the ball to Marsilya's 55%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.51 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toulouse and 2.83 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Marsilya?

Toulouse 2-2 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 38%, draw 25%, Marsilya 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5
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