V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 JEF United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 30% vs market 20.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.9pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY JEF United EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -17%
1.23/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.13
+2% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
248 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY JEF United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
265 Passes 296
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.11.2023 JEF United JEF United 1-3 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
18.02.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
03.09.2022 JEF United JEF United 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
28.08.2021 JEF United JEF United 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
15.05.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-2 HT 0-1 JEF United JEF United JAP2
21.11.2020 JEF United JEF United 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0
AWAY JEF United
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs JEF United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki edged past JEF United 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 41% of the ball to JEF United's 59%, shots finished 5-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for JEF United.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs JEF United?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 JEF United in the Japan - J2 League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs JEF United?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 41%, draw 25%, JEF United 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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