Fransa 1-1 Polonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro, 25 Jun 2024

📅25/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.29
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.18
Over 2.5
44%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.28
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
2.99
6+ Goals
9%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 28% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.57
1/2
5%
99.0
1/X
6%
21.45
X/1
16%
3.42
X/2
5%
17.65
X/X
12%
7.18
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
7%
14.2
2/X
4%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
73%
-12.0pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.8pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
42%
+14.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
58%
-14.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonya EU Bookmakers 12%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
3.11/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.43
+39% / -66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +99%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
498 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 81%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
24.0 Crosses 9.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fransa
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Polonya
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.37 xG 1.77
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
476 Passes 377
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2022 Fransa Fransa 3-1 HT 1-0 Polonya Polonya DK
09.06.2011 Polonya Polonya 0-1 HT 0-1 Fransa Fransa HAZ
17.11.2004 Fransa Fransa 0-0 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa
1-1
AWAY Polonya
2.32 xG 1.16
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
481 Passes 343
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
58 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fransa vs Polonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fransa and Polonya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Fransa at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Fransa had 58% of the ball to Polonya's 42%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.32 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Fransa had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fransa and 0.33 for Polonya.

What was the final score of Fransa vs Polonya?

Fransa 1-1 Polonya in the Euro on 25/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa vs Polonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Fransa 61%, draw 22%, Polonya 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fransa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fransa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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