Illertissen 1-2 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Jun 2024

📅25/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.6pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illertissen EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illertissen
1W-0D-0L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
12.07.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-1 HT 0-0 Illertissen Illertissen HAZ
POST-MATCH Illertissen vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg nicked a narrow win over Illertissen 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Illertissen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Illertissen vs SGV Freiberg?

Illertissen 1-2 SGV Freiberg in the Friendlies on 25/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illertissen vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Illertissen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Illertissen 42%, draw 24%, SGV Freiberg 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Illertissen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Illertissen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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