Miami FC 2-4 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 25 Jun 2026

📅25/06/2026 · 🕒02:33 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.67
Over 2.5
57%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.85
No
41%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.6
2-3 Goals
37%
1.7
4-5 Goals
26%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
19.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
56%
-13.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
44%
+13.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
50%
+8.6pp
41%
BTTS No
50%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +8%
1.21/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.42
-16% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 72%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
16.1 Crosses 13.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Orange County SC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.41 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
335 Passes 386
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 1-2 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
28.05.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
17.07.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
2-4
AWAY Orange County SC
1.78 xG 2.59
18 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
385 Passes 319
42 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC got the better of Miami FC 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Miami FC at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.78 to 2.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Miami FC and 0.67 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Orange County SC?

Miami FC 2-4 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 25/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Miami FC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 42%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 33%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Miami FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Miami FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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