Orange County SC 2-2 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 Mar 2024

Orange County SC
2-2 HT 1-2
Miami FC
📅24/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Orange County SC vs Miami FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.35
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
3.53
6+ Goals
12%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 31% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orange County SC v Miami FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.37/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.53
-42% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
17.4 Crosses 12.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Orange County SC vs Miami FC Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Miami FC
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.71 xG 0.45
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
346 Passes 331
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
28.05.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
17.07.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP

Orange County SC 2-2 Miami FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
2-2
AWAY Miami FC
1.68 xG 0.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
465 Passes 343
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 7
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC and Miami FC couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Orange County SC at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orange County SC had 56% of the ball to Miami FC's 44%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.68 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Orange County SC and 0.00 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Miami FC?

Orange County SC 2-2 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 54%, draw 23%, Miami FC 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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