Indy Eleven 1-1 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.78
Over 2.5
37%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.02
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.87
6+ Goals
9%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 34% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.2pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.5pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.2pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.20/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.14
-14% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
17.9 Crosses 16.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.22 xG 2.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
4 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 11
390 Passes 361
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 19
7 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.05.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 3-1 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
1-1
AWAY Sacramento Republic
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven and Sacramento Republic couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 42% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 58%, shots finished 8-12.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Sacramento Republic?

Indy Eleven 1-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 38%, draw 32%, Sacramento Republic 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Indy Eleven), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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