Las Vegas Lights 1-0 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.97
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.9pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 36%
-38% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +17%
1.78/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.41
-38% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
22.3 Crosses 12.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
1W-0D-5L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.14 xG 1.77
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
285 Passes 393
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-1 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
15.06.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-1 HT 2-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
28.05.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
24.03.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 4-5 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
18.07.2021 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
08.09.2019 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-3 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Vegas Lights
1-0
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
0.39 xG 0.57
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
271 Passes 322
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights squeezed past El Paso Locomotive 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Las Vegas Lights as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 47% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 53%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.39 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 2.00 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs El Paso Locomotive?

Las Vegas Lights 1-0 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 42%, draw 25%, El Paso Locomotive 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Las Vegas Lights), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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