Millonarios 1-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.54
Over 2.5
36%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.09
No
62%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.5pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
61%
+3.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
39%
-3.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.2pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.21/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.09
+17% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
285 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
16.3 Crosses 13.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.56 xG 0.81
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
340 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
07.12.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
24.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
16.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
13.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
28.08.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
1-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.49 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
238 Passes 285
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional nicked a narrow win over Millonarios 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millonarios had 48% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 52%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.49 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Millonarios and 0.50 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional?

Millonarios 1-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 40%, draw 31%, Atletico Nacional 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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