Atletico Nacional 0-1 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 12 Feb 2024

Atletico Nacional
0-1 HT 0-1
Millonarios
📅12/02/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Millonarios — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.15/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.18
+4% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
15.9 Crosses 14.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.61 xG 0.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
257 Passes 392
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
24.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
16.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
13.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
28.08.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
25.06.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL

Atletico Nacional 0-1 Millonarios — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
0-1
AWAY Millonarios
1.15 xG 0.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
23 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
298 Passes 286
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios squeezed past Atletico Nacional 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 51% of the ball to Millonarios's 49%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.15 to 0.28 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Nacional.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.83 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Atletico Nacional 0-1 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 12/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 42%, draw 27%, Millonarios 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5
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