Alianza Atletico vs Melgar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alianza Atletico v Melgar — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Atletico vs Melgar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 3-0
Alianza Atletico
PER
3-3
HT 0-2
Melgar
PER
0-1
HT 0-1
Alianza Atletico
PER
0-0
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
3-3
HT 2-3
Melgar
PER
Alianza Atletico 3-1 Melgar — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Atletico beat Melgar 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Alianza Atletico found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Alianza Atletico had 44% of the ball to Melgar's 56%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.30 to 0.54.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.83 for Melgar.
What was the final score of Alianza Atletico vs Melgar?
Alianza Atletico 3-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alianza Atletico vs Melgar?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alianza Atletico 35%, draw 27%, Melgar 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.