Melgar 1-0 Alianza Atletico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-5.5pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.7pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.78/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.91
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 72%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.5 Crosses 14.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Alianza Atletico
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.53 xG 0.76
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
281 Passes 197
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 Melgar Melgar 4-0 HT 3-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
24.04.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 3-3 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
30.10.2022 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
03.07.2022 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
13.08.2021 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 3-3 HT 2-3 Melgar Melgar PER
08.05.2021 Melgar Melgar 1-3 HT 0-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
1-0
AWAY Alianza Atletico
1.59 xG 0.41
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
376 Passes 152
83% Pass Accuracy 63%
16 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Alianza Atletico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar nicked a narrow win over Alianza Atletico 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Melgar had 65% of the ball to Alianza Atletico's 35%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.59 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Atletico led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Melgar and 1.67 for Alianza Atletico.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?

Melgar 1-0 Alianza Atletico in the Peru - Premier League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Melgar 60%, draw 22%, Alianza Atletico 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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