St. Pauli 0-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Aug 2024

St. Pauli
0-2 HT 0-0
Heidenheim
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

St. Pauli vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.67
1/2
11%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
12%
4.38
X/2
8%
7.44
X/X
16%
4.67
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
13%
5.59
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-8.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 29%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
3.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.00
+65% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +76%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
– Crosses 15.7
– Yellow Cards 1.3

St. Pauli vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.34 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
341 Passes 344
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.04.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
01.10.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
18.03.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
16.10.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-4 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
31.01.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-4 HT 1-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
27.09.2020 St. Pauli St. Pauli 4-2 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2

St. Pauli 0-2 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
0-2
AWAY Heidenheim
1.21 xG 1.12
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
437 Passes 247
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim saw off St. Pauli 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Heidenheim found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 61% of the ball to Heidenheim's 39%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 1.21 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for St. Pauli and 1.17 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Heidenheim?

St. Pauli 0-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 39%, draw 29%, Heidenheim 32%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Pauli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Under 2.5
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