Wolfsburg 2-3 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Aug 2024

Wolfsburg
2-3 HT 0-1
Bayern Münih
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.69
2-3 Goals
38%
2.03
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
15%
8.83
1/2
9%
19.4
1/X
6%
17.0
X/1
6%
12.9
X/2
9%
3.88
X/X
9%
7.31
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.76
2/X
9%
16.8
Value flag · 1/1 at 8.83 — our 15% vs market 7.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
16%
+10.3pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.8pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-14.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wolfsburg v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 69%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -27%
1.13/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.27
+25% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -35%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 494 · 84%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.5
14.6 Crosses 17.9
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.97 xG 1.93
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
339 Passes 574
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
20.12.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-2 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
05.02.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-4 HT 1-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
14.08.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
14.05.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
17.12.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

Wolfsburg 2-3 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
2-3
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.86 xG 2.42
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 7
170 Passes 520
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih edged past Wolfsburg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 29% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 71%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.86 to 2.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wolfsburg and 2.67 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Bayern Münih?

Wolfsburg 2-3 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 27%, draw 23%, Bayern Münih 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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