25/08/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
0-1
TransMara Sugar vs Homeboyz Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
Over 2.5
36%
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
28%
Draw
31%
35%
Away Win
37%
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
63%
BTTS No
56%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
TransMara Sugar v Homeboyz — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
TransMara Sugar
EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY
Homeboyz
EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+29% /
+29%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-24%
/
+115%
48%
Ball Possession
52%
9
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
271 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
325 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
TransMara Sugar vs Homeboyz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
TransMara Sugar swept aside Homeboyz 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; TransMara Sugar found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (63%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.
What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs Homeboyz?
TransMara Sugar 3-0 Homeboyz in the Kenya - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs Homeboyz?
Before kick-off our model rated a TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 36%, draw 28%, Homeboyz 35%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TransMara Sugar), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (TransMara Sugar)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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KEN
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25 Aug 2024