Las Vegas Lights 3-2 Indy Eleven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 31% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.6pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 30%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +23%
1.49/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.46
-51% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
23.4 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Indy Eleven
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.24 xG 1.42
20% Ball Possession 80%
3 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 6
96 Passes 625
53% Pass Accuracy 85%
8 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Vegas Lights
3-2
AWAY Indy Eleven
2.13 xG 0.82
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
489 Passes 210
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs Indy Eleven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights edged past Indy Eleven 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Las Vegas Lights as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 66% of the ball to Indy Eleven's 34%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.13 to 0.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Las Vegas Lights's control.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs Indy Eleven?

Las Vegas Lights 3-2 Indy Eleven in the USL Championship on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs Indy Eleven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 42%, draw 28%, Indy Eleven 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Las Vegas Lights) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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