Sacramento Republic 1-0 San Antonio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 25 Aug 2024

Sacramento Republic
1-0 HT 0-0
San Antonio
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.01
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
7%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 32% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-3.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.6pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sacramento Republic v San Antonio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY San Antonio EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.45/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.08
-28% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.0 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
3W-1D-2L
AWAY San Antonio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.99 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
235 Passes 199
66% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 3-1 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
25.06.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 3-1 HT 2-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
09.04.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 0-0 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
25.09.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 1-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
05.06.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 1-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
19.09.2021 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-1 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP

Sacramento Republic 1-0 San Antonio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
1-0
AWAY San Antonio
1.94 xG 0.29
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 0
517 Passes 209
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 6
46 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic edged past San Antonio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 67% of the ball to San Antonio's 33%, shots finished 21-2, expected goals 1.94 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sacramento Republic's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sacramento Republic and 0.67 for San Antonio.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio?

Sacramento Republic 1-0 San Antonio in the USL Championship on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 53%, draw 24%, San Antonio 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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