Arsenal 5-1 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.11
Draw
20%
8.11
Away
18%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.33
No
47%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
9.05
2-3 Goals
37%
2.44
4-5 Goals
28%
2.34
6+ Goals
17%
3.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.12
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
24%
3.61
X/2
6%
34.5
X/X
9%
17.3
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
7%
34.5
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
85%
-22.2pp
20%
Draw
9%
+10.8pp
18%
Away Win
6%
+11.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
24%
+13.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
76%
-13.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
39%
+14.5pp
47%
BTTS No
61%
-14.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 9%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
3.20/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/2.98
+11% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / -36%
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
537 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 72%
43.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
20.9 Crosses 7.7
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
18 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 4
01.02.2012 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
25.10.2011 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNLK
24.09.2011 Arsenal Arsenal 3-0 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNP
24.04.2011 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
11.09.2010 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 1-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNP
20.01.2010 Arsenal Arsenal 4-2 HT 1-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
5-1
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
2.99 xG 1.15
77% Ball Possession 23%
21 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
576 Passes 120
90% Pass Accuracy 64%
64 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past Bolton Wanderers 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal had 77% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 23%, shots finished 21-4, expected goals 2.99 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Bolton Wanderers.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Bolton Wanderers?

Arsenal 5-1 Bolton Wanderers in the England - League Cup on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 63%, draw 20%, Bolton Wanderers 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNLK More England - League Cup
25 Sep 2024
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