Austria Wien 2-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 25 Sep 2024

Austria Wien
2-2 HT 0-2
Sturm Graz
📅25/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Austria - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.87
6+ Goals
13%
8.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.85
1/2
11%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
17%
6.24
X/2
10%
5.49
X/X
10%
5.33
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
16%
3.22
2/X
5%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+4.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Austria Wien v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.72/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.53
+20% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
21.0 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austria Wien
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.01 xG 2.18
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
233 Passes 231
66% Pass Accuracy 64%
15 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AUK
29.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
30.07.2023 Austria Wien Austria Wien 0-3 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.05.2023 Austria Wien Austria Wien 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
26.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-2 HT 1-2 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
12.03.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-1 HT 1-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU

Austria Wien 2-2 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austria Wien
2-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.20 xG 1.47
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
411 Passes 202
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien and Sturm Graz shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Austria Wien had 65% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 35%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.20 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Austria Wien and 2.17 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Austria Wien 2-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austria Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Austria Wien 40%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Austria Wien) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Austria Wien) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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