25/09/2024
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-0
Al Safa vs Al Riyadh Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19
— our 32% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
3%
1/X
16%
X/1
13%
X/2
24%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
11%
34%
Draw
21%
45%
Away Win
68%
53%
Under 2.5
50%
47%
Over 2.5
50%
49%
BTTS Yes
39%
51%
BTTS No
61%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Al Safa v Al Riyadh — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Al Safa
EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY
Al Riyadh
EU Bookmakers 71%
-7% /
-7%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+14%
/
-45%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
41%
Ball Possession
59%
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
6
252 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
417 · 84%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Al Safa vs Al Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Al Riyadh got the better of Al Safa 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
What was the final score of Al Safa vs Al Riyadh?
Al Safa 1-3 Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Al Safa vs Al Riyadh?
Before kick-off our model rated an Al Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Safa 21%, draw 34%, Al Riyadh 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Riyadh) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Al Riyadh)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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SAKK
More Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey
25 Sep 2024