Tacuarembo 1-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay Cup, 25 Sep 2025

📅25/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.71
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
54%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
54%
Away Win
56%
-1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tacuarembo EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 60%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/0.51
-6% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +64%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
224 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tacuarembo
0W-1D-1L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
08.03.2015 Tacuarembo Tacuarembo 1-1 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
01.09.2014 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Tacuarembo Tacuarembo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tacuarembo
1-2
AWAY CA Penarol
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tacuarembo vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol edged past Tacuarembo 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tacuarembo had 35% of the ball to CA Penarol's 65%, shots finished 8-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tacuarembo and 1.50 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Tacuarembo vs CA Penarol?

Tacuarembo 1-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay Cup on 25/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tacuarembo vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Tacuarembo 20%, draw 26%, CA Penarol 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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