Köln 1-2 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.74
Over 2.5
54%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.67
2-3 Goals
37%
2.15
4-5 Goals
26%
2.5
6+ Goals
14%
5.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.88
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.0
X/1
12%
4.21
X/2
11%
11.5
X/X
10%
7.25
2/1
8%
18.75
2/2
7%
7.29
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.9pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
33%
+13.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
67%
-13.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 22%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
2.91/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.58
+47% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
23.5 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Paderborn
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.47 xG 1.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
322 Passes 300
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
06.03.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL1
20.10.2019 Köln Köln 3-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
15.02.2019 Paderborn Paderborn 3-2 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL2
16.09.2018 Köln Köln 3-5 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
07.02.2015 Köln Köln 0-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
13.09.2014 Paderborn Paderborn 0-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
1-2
AWAY Paderborn
0.89 xG 2.04
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
317 Passes 504
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Köln vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn squeezed past Köln 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Köln at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Köln had 41% of the ball to Paderborn's 59%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.89 to 2.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Köln and 1.50 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Köln vs Paderborn?

Köln 1-2 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Köln 50%, draw 26%, Paderborn 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Köln) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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