Nürnberg 8-3 Jahn Regensburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Oct 2024

Nürnberg
8-3 HT 3-2
Jahn Regensburg
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Nürnberg vs Jahn Regensburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.07
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
14%
3.94
X/2
10%
10.3
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
8%
7.83
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.7
Value flag · 2/X at 15.7 — our 10% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Jahn Regensburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Jahn Regensburg EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.31/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.53
-28% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 69%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.3 Crosses 16.5
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Nürnberg vs Jahn Regensburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Jahn Regensburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.09 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
283 Passes 290
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.02.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg AL2
06.08.2022 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
19.02.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg AL2
12.09.2021 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
27.01.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-1 HT 0-0 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg AL2
18.09.2020 Jahn Regensburg Jahn Regensburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2

Nürnberg 8-3 Jahn Regensburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
8-3
AWAY Jahn Regensburg
3.05 xG 1.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 15
12 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
328 Passes 221
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Jahn Regensburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nürnberg cruised past Jahn Regensburg 8-3. Half-time: 3-2. 11 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nürnberg as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 8-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 58% of the ball to Jahn Regensburg's 42%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 3.05 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nürnberg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nürnberg and 0.67 for Jahn Regensburg.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Jahn Regensburg?

Nürnberg 8-3 Jahn Regensburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Jahn Regensburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nürnberg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 47%, draw 28%, Jahn Regensburg 24%. The final score 8-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nürnberg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nürnberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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