Ingolstadt 5-3 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.58
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
11%
4.89
X/2
10%
7.59
X/X
10%
5.87
2/1
6%
21.1
2/2
14%
4.74
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.61/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.62
-5% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses 23.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
04.11.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
04.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
07.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-4 HT 0-2 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
5-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
57% Ball Possession 43%
26 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
374 Passes 273
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt beat Borussia Dortmund II 5-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ingolstadt as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 57% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 43%, shots finished 26-17.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.00 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Ingolstadt 5-3 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 43%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund II 33%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ingolstadt), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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