Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.65
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.7
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
11%
7.18
X/2
17%
4.94
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
23%
2.76
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +12%
1.36/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.75
+7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +50%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
412 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
Crosses 18.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
04.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
07.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-4 HT 0-2 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
1-1
AWAY Ingolstadt
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II and Ingolstadt shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ingolstadt at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 43% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 57%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 2.00 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt?

Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 27%, draw 25%, Ingolstadt 47%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✗ Over 2.5
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