Verl 3-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.93
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.93 — our 25% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.92
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
17%
4.93
X/2
10%
6.76
X/X
14%
5.01
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
18%
4.55
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.69/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.79
+6% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
15.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
23.10.2022 Verl Verl 3-2 HT 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
3-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl saw off Erzgebirge Aue 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Verl made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Verl had 44% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 56%, shots finished 10-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Verl had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Verl and 1.67 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Verl 3-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Verl 37%, draw 28%, Erzgebirge Aue 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Verl) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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