Unterhaching 4-1 Lübeck — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.97
Over 2.5
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
33.5
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
12%
6.86
X/X
11%
4.97
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.84
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.5 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.3pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Unterhaching EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lübeck EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -20%
1.82/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/2.35
+0% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 71%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
13.2 Crosses 15.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Unterhaching
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Lübeck
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
04.11.2023 Lübeck Lübeck 2-3 HT 0-3 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
27.01.2021 Lübeck Lübeck 1-0 HT 1-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
25.09.2020 Unterhaching Unterhaching 1-0 HT 1-0 Lübeck Lübeck AL3
15.02.2004 Unterhaching Unterhaching 0-1 HT 0-1 Lübeck Lübeck AL2
15.08.2003 Lübeck Lübeck 0-2 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Unterhaching
4-1
AWAY Lübeck
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Unterhaching vs Lübeck
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Unterhaching cruised past Lübeck 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Unterhaching as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Unterhaching had 58% of the ball to Lübeck's 42%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Unterhaching had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Unterhaching and 0.80 for Lübeck.

What was the final score of Unterhaching vs Lübeck?

Unterhaching 4-1 Lübeck in the Germany - 3rd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Unterhaching vs Lübeck?

Before kick-off our model rated a Unterhaching win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Unterhaching 45%, draw 24%, Lübeck 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Unterhaching), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Unterhaching) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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