Ried 3-0 Kapfenberger SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
15%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
2.07
Over 2.5
36%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 32% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.72
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.9
X/1
20%
3.52
X/2
4%
14.3
X/X
14%
6.39
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
7%
11.5
2/X
7%
19.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.2pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.9pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
44%
+19.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
56%
-19.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.6pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ried EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
2.79/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.85
+38% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
358 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 70%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
24.2 Crosses 11.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ried
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
05.04.2024 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 1-3 HT 1-2 Ried Ried AU2
17.09.2023 Ried Ried 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
14.06.2020 Ried Ried 5-0 HT 2-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
30.08.2019 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 2-3 HT 0-2 Ried Ried AU2
08.03.2019 Ried Ried 0-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
11.08.2018 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 1-2 HT 0-0 Ried Ried AU2
POST-MATCH Ried vs Kapfenberger SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ried ran out comfortable winners over Kapfenberger SV 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ried as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ried had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ried and 0.67 for Kapfenberger SV.

What was the final score of Ried vs Kapfenberger SV?

Ried 3-0 Kapfenberger SV in the Austria - 1st Division on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ried vs Kapfenberger SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ried win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Ried 58%, draw 27%, Kapfenberger SV 16%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ried), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ried) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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