İngiltere (K) 3-4 Almanya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
51%
-13.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
38%
Away Win
23%
+15.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.7pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İngiltere (K) EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Almanya (K) EU Bookmakers 27%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.15/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/2.05
-62% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
415 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 82%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
19.6 Crosses 17.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İngiltere (K)
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Almanya (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 1.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
290 Passes 358
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2022 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) ABK
09.11.2019 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) 1-2 HT 1-1 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) HAZ
04.03.2018 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 2-2 HT 1-1 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) SHEBEL
08.03.2017 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) SHEBEL
26.11.2015 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) HAZ
04.07.2015 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) KDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İngiltere (K)
3-4
AWAY Almanya (K)
2.38 xG 2.38
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
349 Passes 337
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İngiltere (K) vs Almanya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya (K) squeezed past İngiltere (K) 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Almanya (K) made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İngiltere (K) had 51% of the ball to Almanya (K)'s 49%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 2.38 to 2.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for İngiltere (K) and 1.00 for Almanya (K).

What was the final score of İngiltere (K) vs Almanya (K)?

İngiltere (K) 3-4 Almanya (K) in the Friendlies on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İngiltere (K) vs Almanya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a İngiltere (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split İngiltere (K) 38%, draw 24%, Almanya (K) 38%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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