İtalya (K) 5-0 Malta (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Oct 2024

İtalya (K)
5-0 HT 1-0
Malta (K)
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

İtalya (K) vs Malta (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.11
Draw
33%
8.78
Away
33%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
85%
-51.9pp
33%
Draw
8%
+24.9pp
33%
Away Win
6%
+26.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İtalya (K) v Malta (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya (K) EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Malta (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.50
-20% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

İtalya (K) vs Malta (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya (K)
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Malta (K)
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
3.51 xG 0.09
76% Ball Possession 24%
29 Total Shots 2
12 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 0
510 Passes 88
84% Pass Accuracy 45%
44 Box Touches 1
32 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.11.2019 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) 5-0 HT 4-0 Malta (K) Malta (K) ABK
04.10.2019 Malta (K) Malta (K) 0-2 HT 0-0 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) ABK
POST-MATCH İtalya (K) vs Malta (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya (K) swept aside Malta (K) 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; İtalya (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, İtalya (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for İtalya (K) and 0.00 for Malta (K).

What was the final score of İtalya (K) vs Malta (K)?

İtalya (K) 5-0 Malta (K) in the Friendlies on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya (K) vs Malta (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split İtalya (K) 33%, draw 33%, Malta (K) 33%. The final score 5-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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