Almere City 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 25 Oct 2024

Almere City
1-0 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.77
6+ Goals
9%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.33
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
8%
6.13
X/2
15%
5.15
X/X
10%
4.28
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
19%
3.37
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.7pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 43%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +12%
1.24/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.45
-33% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +49%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
21.0 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4

Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.95 xG 1.85
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
282 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Almere City Almere City 1-4 HT 1-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
21.10.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL
11.01.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
15.05.2021 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
02.04.2021 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
20.09.2020 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2

Almere City 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-0
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.02 xG 1.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
289 Passes 331
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City nicked a narrow win over NEC Nijmegen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Almere City had 47% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 53%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.02 to 1.96 — on chances, NEC Nijmegen could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Almere City and 2.17 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen?

Almere City 1-0 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Almere City 35%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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