Almere City 1-4 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.39
2-3 Goals
44%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
12%
6.49
X/2
14%
5.29
X/X
15%
5.19
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.09
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
1.25/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.53
+11% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +62%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
19.1 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.96 xG 1.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
268 Passes 340
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.10.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL
11.01.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
15.05.2021 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
02.04.2021 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
20.09.2020 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
13.12.2019 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-3 HT 0-2 Almere City Almere City HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-4
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.04 xG 3.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 7
268 Passes 343
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 40
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen cruised past Almere City 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Almere City had 46% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 54%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.04 to 3.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almere City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Almere City and 1.83 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen?

Almere City 1-4 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Almere City 31%, draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen 42%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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