Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 May 2024

Sparta Rotterdam
2-1 HT 0-0
Heerenveen
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.04
2-3 Goals
41%
2.07
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
15%
5.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.04
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
13%
4.44
X/2
9%
10.45
X/X
11%
6.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.9
2/2
14%
6.7
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.9 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
56%
-13.4pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.9pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+10.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.4pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 24%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
1.74/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.60
-5% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
24.8 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3

Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.00 xG 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 412
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-3 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
15.04.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
05.08.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
03.04.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.12.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
16.05.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL

Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
2-1
AWAY Heerenveen
1.03 xG 0.93
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
351 Passes 446
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
28 Box Touches 37
16 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam squeezed past Heerenveen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sparta Rotterdam as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 44% of the ball to Heerenveen's 56%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.03 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.50 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?

Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 43%, draw 26%, Heerenveen 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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