AZ Alkmaar 3-3 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.59
Over 2.5
49%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
5.87
2-3 Goals
40%
2.05
4-5 Goals
24%
2.59
6+ Goals
11%
5.91
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.87 — our 25% vs market 12.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.67
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.3
X/1
15%
3.86
X/2
10%
14.65
X/X
12%
7.44
2/1
8%
19.9
2/2
8%
10.1
2/X
7%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
65%
-14.9pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.7pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.9pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +19%
2.16/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.64
+18% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
428 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
19.5 Crosses 14.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Utrecht
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.71 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
406 Passes 358
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.12.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
07.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOK
28.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-5 HT 3-3 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
09.10.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
11.05.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 2-2 HT 1-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
17.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-1 HT 3-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3-3
AWAY Utrecht
0.65 xG 2.75
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 14
219 Passes 443
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 46
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 37% of the ball to Utrecht's 63%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.65 to 2.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.00 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?

AZ Alkmaar 3-3 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 50%, draw 25%, Utrecht 25%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Under 2.5
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