Piast Gliwice 3-3 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Oct 2024

Piast Gliwice
3-3 HT 1-1
Lechia Gdansk
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 29% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.4
X/1
17%
3.7
X/2
6%
11.1
X/X
9%
5.5
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
10%
8.88
2/X
5%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Piast Gliwice v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Piast Gliwice EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.41/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.03
-21% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
16.9 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Piast Gliwice
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.48 xG 1.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
272 Passes 367
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.05.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 3-0 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
13.11.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-3 HT 0-1 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
12.03.2022 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
18.09.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 1-0 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
17.04.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-2 HT 0-1 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
23.11.2020 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 2-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Piast Gliwice 3-3 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Piast Gliwice
3-3
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.38 xG 2.25
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
13 Corners 1
485 Passes 226
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
45 Box Touches 24
39 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Piast Gliwice at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Piast Gliwice had 66% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 34%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.38 to 2.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Piast Gliwice had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.67 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?

Piast Gliwice 3-3 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Piast Gliwice win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Piast Gliwice 55%, draw 24%, Lechia Gdansk 20%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Piast Gliwice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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