Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.37
Draw
29%
4.49
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
8%
8.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.63
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
19.1
X/1
20%
3.57
X/2
7%
16.15
X/X
11%
6.72
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
7%
12.75
2/X EV+ ✗
13%
19.95
Value flag · 2/X at 19.95 — our 13% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
69%
-15.5pp
29%
Draw
19%
+9.4pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 15%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
2.05/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.56
+6% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +66%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
25.6 Crosses 14.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.60 xG 0.77
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
384 Passes 211
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
04.11.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-2 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2-1
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.71 xG 2.65
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
364 Passes 155
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin edged past Puszcza Niepolomice 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 66% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 34%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.71 to 2.65 — on chances, Puszcza Niepolomice could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.00 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 53%, draw 29%, Puszcza Niepolomice 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5
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