Casa Pia 1-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Oct 2024

Casa Pia
1-0 HT 1-0
Nacional
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Casa Pia vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.33
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
18%
4.6
X/2
12%
6.49
X/X
11%
4.1
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
9%
5.04
2/X
8%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.12/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.16
-27% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
21.0 Crosses 19.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Casa Pia vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.95 xG 1.07
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
303 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POK
28.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional PORLC
09.02.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-5 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POK
19.02.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
19.09.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
25.11.2020 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-3 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POK

Casa Pia 1-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-0
AWAY Nacional
0.86 xG 1.10
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
213 Passes 320
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia nicked a narrow win over Nacional 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Casa Pia as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Casa Pia had 43% of the ball to Nacional's 57%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 0.86 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Casa Pia and 1.67 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Nacional?

Casa Pia 1-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 47%, draw 27%, Nacional 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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