Kitara 1-3 BUL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 25 Oct 2024

Kitara
1-3 HT 1-2
BUL
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.13
No
64%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.2pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.2pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.1pp
36%
BTTS Yes
43%
-7.1pp
64%
BTTS No
57%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kitara EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY BUL EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.47/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.27
-58% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kitara
0W-1D-1L
AWAY BUL
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 3
29.03.2024 Kitara Kitara 0-0 HT 0-0 BUL BUL UGA
26.11.2023 BUL BUL 2-1 HT 2-0 Kitara Kitara UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kitara
1-3
AWAY BUL
65% Ball Possession 35%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kitara vs BUL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BUL got the better of Kitara 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Kitara at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kitara had 65% of the ball to BUL's 35%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, BUL led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kitara and 1.00 for BUL.

What was the final score of Kitara vs BUL?

Kitara 1-3 BUL in the Uganda - Premier League on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kitara vs BUL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kitara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kitara 41%, draw 24%, BUL 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kitara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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