Venezia 0-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 Nov 2024

📅25/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 32% vs market 30.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.11
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.35
X/1
11%
4.7
X/2
8%
6.79
X/X
11%
4.04
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
13%
5.24
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 32%
-60% / -60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
0.80/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.26
-31% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +66%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
30.1 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lecce
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.16 xG 1.40
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 Passes 426
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.05.2021 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
17.05.2021 Venezia Venezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
16.03.2021 Venezia Venezia 2-3 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
05.12.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 1-2 Venezia Venezia İTB
11.02.2019 Venezia Venezia 1-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
22.09.2018 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
0-1
AWAY Lecce
2.73 xG 0.70
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
438 Passes 265
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce nicked a narrow win over Venezia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Lecce made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Venezia had 61% of the ball to Lecce's 39%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.73 to 0.70 — the balance of chances actually favoured Venezia.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Venezia and 1.50 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Lecce?

Venezia 0-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venezia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Venezia 40%, draw 30%, Lecce 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Venezia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Venezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
25 Nov 2024
20:30 Empoli vs Udinese Analysis →