UTA Arad 1-2 Universitatea Craiova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 25 Nov 2024

📅25/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+5.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-6.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTA Arad EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Universitatea Craiova EU Bookmakers 52%
+12% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
0.78/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.62/2.08
+17% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 41.0
24.0 Crosses 35.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTA Arad
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.16 xG 1.39
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
228 Passes 587
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 4-2 HT 1-1 UTA Arad UTA Arad ROM
20.12.2023 UTA Arad UTA Arad 2-2 HT 2-1 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
01.11.2023 UTA Arad UTA Arad 0-1 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROMK
18.08.2023 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 3-0 HT 1-0 UTA Arad UTA Arad ROM
10.03.2023 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2-1 HT 0-1 UTA Arad UTA Arad ROM
23.10.2022 UTA Arad UTA Arad 1-2 HT 1-1 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTA Arad
1-2
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
0.64 xG 2.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
231 Passes 471
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UTA Arad vs Universitatea Craiova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitatea Craiova edged past UTA Arad 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Universitatea Craiova as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, UTA Arad had 36% of the ball to Universitatea Craiova's 64%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 0.64 to 2.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Universitatea Craiova's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitatea Craiova led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UTA Arad and 2.33 for Universitatea Craiova.

What was the final score of UTA Arad vs Universitatea Craiova?

UTA Arad 1-2 Universitatea Craiova in the Romania - 1st Division on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTA Arad vs Universitatea Craiova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Universitatea Craiova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split UTA Arad 30%, draw 28%, Universitatea Craiova 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universitatea Craiova), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Universitatea Craiova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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