Standard Liege II 0-4 Lommel United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
28%
4.62
Away
54%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.51
Over 2.5
47%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
5.09
2-3 Goals
34%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.6
6+ Goals
12%
6.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.09 — our 32% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
17%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
14%
+4.6pp
28%
Draw
18%
+9.1pp
54%
Away Win
68%
-13.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
36%
+17.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
64%
-17.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Standard Liege II EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Lommel United EU Bookmakers 72%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.12/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.52
+26% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% /
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
256 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 48.6
17.3 Crosses 13.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Standard Liege II
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Lommel United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.56 xG 1.48
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
303 Passes 390
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 30
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Lommel United Lommel United 1-0 HT 1-0 Standard Liege II Standard Liege II BEL2
24.02.2023 Standard Liege II Standard Liege II 1-0 HT 0-0 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
17.12.2022 Standard Liege II Standard Liege II 0-3 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
18.09.2022 Lommel United Lommel United 0-1 HT 0-1 Standard Liege II Standard Liege II BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Standard Liege II
0-4
AWAY Lommel United
0.03 xG 2.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
2 Total Shots 17
0 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 3
299 Passes 472
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 40
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Standard Liege II vs Lommel United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United ran out comfortable winners over Standard Liege II 4-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lommel United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Standard Liege II had 42% of the ball to Lommel United's 58%, shots finished 2-17, expected goals 0.03 to 2.02.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Standard Liege II and 1.00 for Lommel United.

What was the final score of Standard Liege II vs Lommel United?

Standard Liege II 0-4 Lommel United in the Belgium - 1st Division on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Standard Liege II vs Lommel United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Standard Liege II 19%, draw 28%, Lommel United 54%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lommel United), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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