Aguilas Doradas 1-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 25%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.24/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.13
+6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 72%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
18.6 Crosses 13.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aguilas Doradas
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.62 xG 1.41
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
266 Passes 268
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.08.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 2-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
12.02.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
19.07.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 2-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
30.01.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
12.09.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-3 HT 1-2 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
01.04.2021 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 2-2 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguilas Doradas
1-0
AWAY Once Caldas
0.49 xG 0.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
419 Passes 254
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aguilas Doradas vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aguilas Doradas edged past Once Caldas 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aguilas Doradas as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Aguilas Doradas had 59% of the ball to Once Caldas's 41%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.49 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aguilas Doradas had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aguilas Doradas and 1.50 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Aguilas Doradas vs Once Caldas?

Aguilas Doradas 1-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguilas Doradas vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguilas Doradas win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Aguilas Doradas 50%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aguilas Doradas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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