St. Pauli 3-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.71
Over
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.77
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
19%
3.95
6+
9%
18.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.77 — our 33% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.3
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
13%
5.14
X/2
14%
6.5
X/X
15%
4.09
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
15%
4.76
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin The Market 33%
-19% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -23%
0.94/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.42
-96% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.0 Crosses 21.1
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Union Berlin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.96 xG 1.64
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 313
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
01.03.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
04.02.2019 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
26.08.2018 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-1 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
14.04.2018 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
04.11.2017 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
3-0
AWAY Union Berlin
1.24 xG 1.08
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
300 Passes 409
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli swept aside Union Berlin 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; St. Pauli found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, St. Pauli had 44% of the ball to Union Berlin's 56%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.24 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for St. Pauli and 1.83 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Union Berlin?

St. Pauli 3-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 36%, draw 29%, Union Berlin 35%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
26 Jan 2025
17:30 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →