Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.19
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
42%
-8.5pp
34%
Draw
29%
+5.0pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.8pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 32%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.71/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.47
-42% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2 Corners 6
01.11.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-1 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
24.08.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
13.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
13.02.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
26.11.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
16.09.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan nicked a narrow win over Neftçi PFK 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 34% / 32% — and on the day Araz Nahçıvan made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Araz Nahçıvan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 0.83 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Neftçi PFK?

Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 33%, draw 34%, Neftçi PFK 32%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
26 Jan 2025
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