Karabağ 1-2 Turan Tovuz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.3
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
72%
-8.9pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.4pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +25%
2.80/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.59
+51% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +38%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
430 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Turan Tovuz
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
01.11.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-0 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
24.08.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.05.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-3 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-3 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.10.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz squeezed past Karabağ 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Karabağ carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Karabağ and 1.17 for Turan Tovuz.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Karabağ 1-2 Turan Tovuz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 63%, draw 19%, Turan Tovuz 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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26 Jan 2025
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