AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Feb 2024

AZ Alkmaar II
2-3 HT 0-1
NAC Breda
📅26/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

AZ Alkmaar II vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
24.85
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
10%
6.32
X/2
10%
5.2
X/X
11%
4.94
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
20%
3.16
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
40%
Away Win
40%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar II v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 45%
+11% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.24/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.46
+10% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
9.8 Crosses 19.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

AZ Alkmaar II vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
1W-0D-5L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.07 xG 1.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
355 Passes 309
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
27.01.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 5-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
07.10.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
21.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-2 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
15.10.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.03.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-3
AWAY NAC Breda
0.41 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 3
451 Passes 325
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 20
7 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda nicked a narrow win over AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 40% — and on the day NAC Breda made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 56% of the ball to NAC Breda's 44%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.41 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 2.17 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs NAC Breda?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated an NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 35%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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