Ajax II 0-3 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Feb 2024

📅26/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.59
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.43
No
48%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.85
2-3 Goals
37%
2.05
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
12%
5.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.47
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
8%
4.91
X/2
6%
8.14
X/X
13%
5.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.65
2/2
13%
4.97
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 12% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
66%
-14.1pp
48%
BTTS No
34%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.62/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.41
+20% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
11.0 Crosses 15.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Telstar
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.92 xG 1.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
431 Passes 271
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Telstar Telstar 3-2 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
07.04.2023 Telstar Telstar 2-3 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
08.08.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
23.01.2022 Telstar Telstar 1-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
01.11.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
12.05.2021 Telstar Telstar 1-2 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
0-3
AWAY Telstar
0.33 xG 2.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
5 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 4
343 Passes 188
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
11 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar ran out comfortable winners over Ajax II 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax II at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ajax II had 59% of the ball to Telstar's 41%, shots finished 5-9, expected goals 0.33 to 2.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ajax II and 1.33 for Telstar.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs Telstar?

Ajax II 0-3 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 48%, draw 27%, Telstar 24%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Ajax II), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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