Ukrayna 2-1 İzlanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro Qualifiers, 26 Mar 2024

Ukrayna
2-1 HT 0-1
İzlanda
📅26/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Euro Qualifiers – 2024

Ukrayna vs İzlanda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
17.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.02
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
16.65
X/1
20%
3.63
X/2
6%
11.15
X/X
11%
4.87
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
9%
9.52
2/X
5%
17.7
Value flag · 1/X at 16.65 — our 10% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ukrayna v İzlanda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY İzlanda EU Bookmakers 20%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.17/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.37
-1% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
15.0 Crosses 13.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5

Ukrayna vs İzlanda Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ukrayna
0W-1D-1L
AWAY İzlanda
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.46 xG 1.12
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
494 Passes 230
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.09.2017 İzlanda İzlanda 2-0 HT 0-0 Ukrayna Ukrayna DKE
05.09.2016 Ukrayna Ukrayna 1-1 HT 1-1 İzlanda İzlanda DKE

Ukrayna 2-1 İzlanda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ukrayna
2-1
AWAY İzlanda
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
437 Passes 267
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Ukrayna vs İzlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ukrayna nicked a narrow win over İzlanda 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ukrayna as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Ukrayna had 60% of the ball to İzlanda's 40%, shots finished 13-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, İzlanda led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ukrayna and 1.50 for İzlanda.

What was the final score of Ukrayna vs İzlanda?

Ukrayna 2-1 İzlanda in the Euro Qualifiers on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ukrayna vs İzlanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ukrayna win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ukrayna 54%, draw 26%, İzlanda 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ukrayna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ukrayna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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