Aarau 0-2 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 26 Apr 2024

Aarau
0-2 HT 0-0
Bellinzona
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Aarau vs Bellinzona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
22%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.98
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 28% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
47%
+5.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
28%
-6.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.2pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aarau v Bellinzona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.05/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.03
-9% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
9.6 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Aarau vs Bellinzona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.31
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
349 Passes 264
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.03.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 5-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.10.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
13.08.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
30.04.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.02.2023 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
19.10.2022 Aarau Aarau 0-1 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2

Aarau 0-2 Bellinzona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
0-2
AWAY Bellinzona
1.06 xG 0.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
473 Passes 311
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona saw off Aarau 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aarau at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Aarau had 59% of the ball to Bellinzona's 41%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.06 to 0.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aarau.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aarau and 1.50 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Bellinzona?

Aarau 0-2 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aarau 52%, draw 27%, Bellinzona 22%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Aarau) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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