Bellinzona 5-2 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
31%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.2pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
31%
Away Win
39%
-7.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.14/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.79
-47% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
267 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
14.2 Crosses 14.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Aarau
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.42 xG 1.25
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
311 Passes 287
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
13.08.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
30.04.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.02.2023 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
19.10.2022 Aarau Aarau 0-1 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
12.08.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-4 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
5-2
AWAY Aarau
1.11 xG 2.01
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
169 Passes 473
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 22
7 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona ran out comfortable winners over Aarau 5-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 31% — and on the day Bellinzona made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bellinzona had 31% of the ball to Aarau's 69%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.11 to 2.01 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aarau.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bellinzona and 1.83 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Aarau?

Bellinzona 5-2 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 37%, draw 32%, Aarau 31%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bellinzona), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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